Related stories:
- 7/2 AP/Yahoo Poll finds America gives Michelle Obama two big thumbs down
- 7/3 Washington Post found guilty of cover-up; trying to spare Michelle's feelings?
- 7/10 Pew Research Poll shows Obama with a landslide 8% lead nationally: here's why the Obamatrons may be in for a big surprise
- 7/19 Obama leads by 2 points: Gallup offers cautionary note on July polls as predictors...wrong in 6 of last 9 "competitive" races
- 7/22 Rasmussen Poll shocker: McCain viewed "more favorably" than Obama: BHO support lowest since became nominee... BHO leads overall by 1%
- 7/23 Poll reveals Wall St. Experts worry about Obama's impact on the economy
- 7/23 WSJ/NBC poll: Obama losing on leadership, experience, Commander-in-Chief readiness , honesty, integrity: BHO has small lead
- 7/24 Obama leads McCain 60 -33 among Jewish voters; are they meshuga?
- 7/26 Obama receives big bounce from MSM news of his America Sucks World Tour; McCain loses like Adlai Stevenson
- 7/28 You can not be serious! Gallup/USA Today poll gives MCCAIN a 4 point lead; another Obama fundraising gimmick?
- 7/29 75% of us dont share Michelle's vision for America; 75% of us dont think Michelle fits their idea of what a First Lady should be
- 7/30 Twelve reasons Obama should be deeply disturbed by the end-of-July polls; why he's not
- 7/31 Obama's big problem; lunch-pail Ohio Democrats ask "Who on earth is this guy?": McCain gains in bellwether Ohio
- 8/1 With polls tied Obama's eyes turn to undecided voters: there's a lot more than usual up for grabs; not good news for Obama
- 8/1 Obama caught: Gallup's Daily Tracker shows the stumbling hare is level with the tortoise for the first time
- 8/2 Raw enthusiasm for Obama is on the wane in some segments of his base: only 46% of under 30's certain to vote
- 8/9 Obama's Catholic problem could bring him back to earth without a parachute
- 8/11 The threat of Hillary's revival sends Obama into a 5 point lead, on average, in the National polls; what convenient timing
- 8/14 Achtung Obama: With polls tied overall, 12 million Democrats think its at least "somewhat likely" Clinton wins nomination in Denver
- 8/17 Battleground shocker: unelectable Obama behind in 5 of 6 most closely contested States
- 8/20 LA Times/Bloomberg poll finds Obama's favorability plunged 11 since mid-June; his support among men down to 40%: BHO 2% lead
- 8/22 Struggling in the polls, Obama pulls all ads in the Red States; just temporary claims campaign
- 8/24 Gallup: Obama's pick of Biden has the least positive response of any Democrat pick in recent General Elections
- 8/28 Obama received a small bounce from Hillary; Rasmussen poll tied at 47: will likely reflect sizable bounce for Obama by the weekend
- 8/30 Palin beats Biden 53% - 48% on first impressions; Obama's convention bounce - 8 point lead in Gallup poll
- 8/30 Obama's convention bounce is the same size as Gore's but less than Carter in 80 and Mondale in 84
- 8/30 Palin scores big with Independents: 63% of unaffiliated voters give her two big thumbs up
- 8/31 Zogby Poll post-Palin shows Obama LOSING by 2 points : Over a fifth of Clinton supporters back McCain/Palin
- 9/1 Why no Obama convention bounce? His speech was too angry, negative and contained too much Big Government
- 9/3 Overnight tracking polls: making sense of Obama's sudden sprint into a 5 to 6 point lead
- 9/4 Widespread disaster for Obama: Palin ripped his experience to shreds in front of 37,200,000 American TV viewers
- 9/7 Zogby poll: McCain LEADS Obama by 4% post-convention; last week McCain led by 2:BHO's UNfavorable 50%
- 9/7 Gallup Daily Poll: McCain finally takes the lead: 3 point margin!
- 9/8 Obama opens up 63 (sixty-three) point LEAD in German poll; in the real world Gallup Tracker shows he's LOSING by 5
- 9/8 Whoa! Take this poll with a grain of salt...Gallup/USA Today shows McCain ahead by TEN among "likely" voters; +4 with RV
- 9/8 ABC poll: White women in Midwest region make huge 13% swing from Obama to McCain: nationally BHO has record 96% of African-American vote
- 9/10 Another nail in Obama's 57 State Strategy; Montana stays Red; BHO's July 4 fireworks in Butte did not pay off
- 9/10 Obama picked Biden over Richardson; now McCain makes gains among Latinos to lead New Mexico; Delaware looks good for BHO
- 9/11 Gallup Tracker poll; McCain has a "stable lead for now"; Obama trails by 4: some polls are not fully reflecting the McCain surge
- 9/12 Rasmussen Tracker confirms a major surge in support for McCain; Obama TRAILS by 3; NBC only news org still in denial
- 9/14 John McCain opens up a 15-point lead among independents: America's Mavericks are eating Obama's lunch
- 9/16 How an opinion poll is used to manufacture good news for Obama...when there is no good news for Obama
- 9/25 Squeaker: Gallup Tracker Tied at 46-46; Ramussen Obama +3; Battleground Poll McCain+1
- 10/2 With Palin rising, here's McCain's final month game-plan to come from behind and defeat Barack Obama
- 10/2 McCain Palin CAN catch up; Obama had 8 point lead the day before the vote in New Hampshire Primary; lost by 3 points
- 10/3 only 4 in ten Americans will vote for McCain OR Obama
- 10/5 Obama and McCain's Maine Road to the White House; united in Omaha? You may learn something new
- 10/16 Confessions to a Catholic Priest suggest the polls are overstating support for Obama
- 10/23 Rasmussen Poll shows McCain regaining lead in North Carolina; Obama lead in NH shrinks to 4
- The New Hampshire foreshadowing; CNN had Obama ahead by 10% and Gallup by 13% the day before he lost Primary by 2 points
- Obama's lead shrinks to 3 points; expert thinks late deciders will vote for the least risky...John McCain
- Obama's lead down to 2 says IBD/TIPP the most accurate pollster for 2004 election; McCain gains in Midwest
- 10/30PA - After Obama's half-hour of self-worship on TV his favorables trail McCain: BHO lead shrivels to Margin of Error: more Dems defect
- 10/31 Friday pm Battleground polls: McCain back in front by 3 in Missouri and dead heat in North Carolina
- McCain's GOTV significantly exceeds 2004; absentee ballots at target levels: Iowa statistical dead heat
- Nevada: with 25% already voted concerns about low turnout so far for first-time voters, Latinos and under 30's
- 10/31 Rasmussen polls: when it comes to TAXES and ECONOMY more Americans trust McCAIN than Obama:"sharing the wealth" hurt
- 10/31 Obama's leads by over 10 million votes in US polls; a Canadian thinks the Yanks have gone mad voting for a false Messiah
- 11/1 Anxious to avoid a return to socialism, poll of 3.1 million Russian immigrant shows they favor McCain 63 to 11
- 11/1 NYT: Obama losing among Whites; but BHO share at 44% exceeds President Clinton; BHO has gained 6% since McCain led mid-Sept
- 11/2 Poll: around 11% of Americans ADMIT to lying to pollsters: army of liars growing due to FALSE accusations of RACISM
- 10/31 Obama's leads by over 10 million votes in US polls; a Canadian thinks the Yanks have gone mad voting for a false Messiah
- 11/4 Early exit polls are even more skewed to Dems than 2004; Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
- 11/4 Congratulations to President-Elect Obama: Victory speech transcript November 4, 2008 Chicago
Some highlights: Asked to pick which of the candidates each of the following best describes:
Personally likable: McCain 18 Obama 64
Would use good judgment in a crisis: McCain 47 Obama 38
Has new ideas: McCain 12 Obama 74
Personally qualified to be president: McCain 55 Obama 27
Although respondents by a 28% margin view McCain as more "personally qualified to be president", overall 8% more respondents prefer the more "personally likable" Obama for President.
Clearly, this is where McCain is going wrong...he's worrying too much about energy, economy, health-care and keeping us safe. By contrast his opponent is using everything learned from studying voting patterns in American Idol which suggest the winners are the most likable. No one seems to be bothered that Obama's new ideas consist primarily of "hope and change"...which could well mean nothing more than he says something today and "hopes" you wont notice when he "changes" his mind.
As for policies...while more respondents say they support Obama's policies in the abstract, when all respondents were specifically asked about whether they supported gay marriage, a position Obama has taken (for this week) 52% disagreed and 40% agreed. Historically that question has been one of the better predictors of the final outcome of the vote...and therefore provides McCain who has taken the opposite position a major source of advantage he has yet to communicate.
There are other reasons I believe the race is much closer than suggested by the 8% lead.
As is always the case with polls the devils in the details...and usually buried at around question 53...where the mainstream media don't bother looking.
Here's a couple of examples of this particular poll's potential flaws.
Operation chaos:While this effect has never been officially quantified...anecdotally it was believed to be significant in certain swing states. Many others who were not called upon by Rush to do his bidding because their states' Democrat Primaries were already over, may well have jumped aboard the idea of causing chaos by giving the pollsters the wrong feedback.
Rush Limbaugh planted a seed during the primaries for people to cross parties to guarantee Clinton kept Obama waiting to clinch the nomination. The ideas and confusion generated by so-called Operation Chaos will inevitably creep into the results of every poll until November. A Republican who signs up for Operation Chaos, and goes to the trouble of registering as a Democrat, is hardly likely to openly share General Election voting intentions with a pollster.
And as can be seen from the responses to the question of Obama's religion there are unquestionably some people having a laugh at the pollsters expense. I'm not talking about the 10% that say Obama is a Muslim, I'm talking about the 1% that say he is Jewish!!!!
And given a choice between "pro-life", "pro-choice" and "dont know" to describe Obama's view on abortion, 10% said pro-life...which is wrong by about 179.9 degrees on the political spectrum. Maybe another indication that 10% are having a laugh.
Preferred Primary candidate
Apart from unquantified effects of Operation Chaos and evidence of clowning. I frequently run into a bias towards the most liberal candidate in political polls at local, State and national level.
In this case the level of bias towards pro-Obama interviewees can be seen in the response to question 53 which asks DEMOCRAT leaning voters "Thinking back to the Democrat primary who did you prefer more?"
Now Clinton supporters who claim their candidate won the popular vote would expect there to be more people saying Clinton. Obama supporters at best would expect the answer to be 50/50.
The actual response was 51% Obama and 43% Clinton with 6% other and don't know. Maybe some people are rewriting history to put themselves on the side of the winner, but Hillary's supporters to this day tend to be proud of their candidate and are not particularly likely to disown her.
My point is that the 51-43% Obama bias is consistent with my previous experience that pollsters tend to include too many progressives and in doing so slant poll results towards the progressive candidate. Why? I'm not going to speculate...but one talk-radio show host...whose name was recently mentioned, has suggested that non-progressives, aka, wealth creators/bread-winners, tend to be too busy to respond to pollsters interviews. Logical theory, but wholly unproven.
The number of Undecideds is unusually large
Another point to consider...the poll includes more undecideds than last month, If that is a fair reflection, that is good news for McCain. (Almost a third of the people polled said they may yet change their minds about a preferred candidate) Historically, undecideds break at the last minute to the candidate with the most experience...usually the least risky. Even in this flawed poll, McCain beats Obama by many points 43%-3% on the experience issue.
The key to McCain closing the gap in his own hands. By the time the election comes, people will know why they should not vote for Obama...McCain's already ahead on honesty 45 to 44 with 11 for neither is honest. But for a whole series of reasons, McCain has so far failed to introduce himself or his new ideas to the American public. Nor has he fully convinced the conservative wing of the party that he hears them loud and clear. He has the time to rectify both of these and has recently changed campaign managers. He will now get it done.
Oh yes and dont forget the so-called Jesse Jackson Obama supporters. The one's who tell you to your face that they support Obama but when the time comes to visit the ballot box they vote with their pent-up anger. . How many Jesse Jackson's are out with bottled up dislike for Obama? Dont know, but I do know Obama left a trail of destruction inside his own party during the primary. I'm sure Jesse Jackson isn't alone in harboring ill-feeling...(last week Bill Clinton told Obama to" kiss his ass")...although thankfully Jackson's the only one that has indicated a desire to castrate the candidate. I suspect the rest will resort to the more traditional method of placing a mark on the ballot next to McCain/Romney.
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